Rachel Alexandra in good shape after Personal Ensign loss

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/30/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra came out of Sunday's upset loss in the Personal Ensign Stakes in good condition and will return to training on Wednesday.

Trainer Steve Asmussen said that he and majority owner Jess Jackson will talk about the filly's future following her gallop on Wednesday morning.

"How she comes back to the track is our focus now," said Asmussen. "You don't want to lose, you're not planning on losing, but you can remember what she's won and what she's done for us. My feelings for her today are the same as my feelings for her the day after the Woodward or Preakness.

"I think there's a great amount of pride in her and belief in herself. She has a tremendous amount of strength in her, and it's been called upon before and it will be called upon again."

The Personal Ensign was Rachel's first career start at 1 1/4-miles. She set the pace with Delaware Handicap champ Life At Ten right behind. The other three females were more than 10-lengths behind on the backstretch.

Sent off as the 2-5 favorite, Rachel put away Life At Ten on the final turn and had a clear lead at the top of the stretch. Persistently, 21-1 at post- time, came charging down the stretch to catch the favorite near the finish and win by a length.

Trainer Shug McGaughey said Monday that Persistently also came out of the race in good condition.

"She's doing well, I'm tired, but she seemed to come back fine," said the Hall of Fame trainer who also conditioned Personal Ensign. "A lot of times it doesn't hit them until a couple of days later, but she cooled out great. We've retooled (her schedule) to point for the Beldame ($350,000 1 1/8-miles at Belmont Park on Saturday, October 2); that's our next stop."

Life At Ten, the 9-5 second pick to Rachel, is also fine and could be entered in the Beldame versus Persistently.

"She was tired, no doubt about it," said trainer Todd Pletcher. "In that situation, if you're going to try to win, and no one else has any speed - if our objective was to be Grade 1-placed or to secure second, we would have approached it maybe a little differently. We wanted to try to win, and ultimately got tired doing that.

"I don't think we'll need to run her at 1 1/4-miles again."

Pletcher indicated that Life At Ten will be pointed toward the 1 1/8-mile Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic at Churchill Downs on November 5.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.